IMF Raises Global GDP Outlook To Highest In 7 Years Thanks To Trump Tax Cuts

Global growth will accelerate to the fastest pace in seven years as U.S. tax cuts spur businesses to invest, the International Monetary Fund says in its latest quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook.

The IMF raised its forecast for world expansion to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, up 0.2% for both years from its projection in October. That would be the fastest rate of growth since 2011, when the world was bouncing back from the financial crisis.

It is also worth noting to what the IMF attributed its rebound in optimism: according to the DC-based organization, about half of the IMF’s global upgrade stems from the Republican tax cuts passed in December.

This is how the IMF explained its growing optimism about a global recovery:

Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent. The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U.S. tax policy changes.

The U.S. tax policy changes are expected to stimulate activity, with the short-term impact in the United States mostly driven by the investment response to the corporate income tax cuts. The effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario. Due to the temporary nature of some of its provisions, the tax policy package is projected to lower growth for a few years from 2022 onwards. The effects of the package on output in the United States and its trading partners contribute about half of the cumulative revision to global growth over 2018–19.

Broken down by region:

United States: IMF sees U.S. expansion at 2.7% this year, 0.4% higher than the fund expected in October. Curiously, the IMF predicts the tax plan will actually reduce U.S. growth after 2022, offsetting earlier gains, as some tax cuts expire and the U.S. tries to curb its budget deficit
Eurozone: the IMF sees 2018 GDP growth of 2.2%, up 0.3% from October.
Japan: IMF expected 2018 GDP growth of 1.2% in 2018, up 0.5% from October
China: GDP will grow 6.6%, the IMF predicts, up 0.1%
The fund left its 2018 forecast for India unchanged from three months ago, at 7.4%; it also kept its UK growth forecast for 2018 at 1.5%, while lowering its 2019 estimate by 1 point to 1.5%.

What about risks? Here again is the IMF:

Risks to the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, but remain skewed to the downside over the medium term. On the upside, the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other. On the downside, rich asset valuations and very compressed term premiums raise the possibility of a financial market correction, which could dampen growth and confidence. A possible trigger is a faster-than-expected increase in advanced economy core inflation and interest rates as demand accelerates. If global sentiment remains strong and inflation muted, then financial conditions could remain loose into the medium term, leading to a buildup of financial vulnerabilities in advanced and emerging market economies alike. Inward-looking policies, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in some countries also pose downside risks.

The current cyclical upswing provides an ideal opportunity for reforms. Shared priorities across all economies include implementing structural reforms to boost potential output and making growth more inclusive. In an environment of financial market optimism, ensuring financial resilience is imperative. Weak inflation suggests that slack remains in many advanced economies and monetary policy should continue to remain accommodative. However, the improved growth momentum means that fiscal policy should increasingly be designed with an eye on medium-term goals—ensuring fiscal sustainability and bolstering potential output. Multilateral cooperation remains vital for securing the global recovery.

To summarize:

and visually

Happy days are here again: Global optimism has returned, and the IMF now expectingnearly 4% growth in 2018 and 2019, up 0.2% from just 3 months ago. That would be the fastest rate since 2011, when the world was bouncing back from the global financial crisis. IMF sees US expansion at 2.7% this year, an increase of 0.4 points from October. The Eurozone forecast is now 2.2%, up 0.3% points while China will expand at 6.6% growth.
Thank Trump (for now): half of the IMF’s global upgrade stems from the Republican tax cuts passed in December. And while the economy is set to enjoy the boost from tax cuts in the short term, the IMF predicts the tax plan will actually reduce U.S. growth after 2022, offsetting earlier gains.
The UK loses: The UK, alongside India,  was one of the only key economies to have an unchanged forecast. The IMF left the forecast for UK growth unchanged at 1.5%, understandable given Brexit uncertainty persists, while the UK's 2019 forecast was cut by -0.1%.
Finally, the IMF hopes global government will take this period of coordinated growth to implement much needed, and unpopular, reforms. The IMF will be disappointed.

source

Read More

The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Welcome to our blog: Equilibrium (POC) is a key to success.

On this blog you will receive information that will allow you to quickly identify trend reversals in all time units. You do not need any or few indicators. This approach requires a little effort and is not so easy to do, but it's worth it.

This blog is not an instruction book for flawless trades, it lives on the active trader who is willing to share his knowledge of the POC. If you want to participate, please post only blogs on the subject and if you like a post, the participants are happy about a Like.

I wish you success here and maybe we will hear from each other.

Michael


The Equilibrium, a key to success!

For some years now, I've stopped by at Forex Factory and was always excited about the great contributions. Interesting opinions, charts and indicators should help to support the private trader. In this shark tank the forex market is turbulent. The beginners have a hard time. Just think about football once. If you want to learn football, you can start in a youth team and play up to the NFL.
In the Forex market, there is no beginner market, because the beginner plays against the biggest professionals in the world. And how that ends, everyone can think.

Well, if there are such platforms as Forex Factory, where traders from all over the world come together to face the biggest traders in the world. Of course, every trader is the competitor to the other, but you help each other out.
When trading, there are many keys to success. In my first post I want to show you a key to success. I do not want to discuss with you the meaning or nonsense of this key, but about the implementation to success. If the post is of any use to you, use the information, otherwise forget it again.
I do not claim that this key is the master key that always works.
This key works without indicators for all traders (of course only those who want to) in all time units.

The key "Equilibrium"

1. The price is determined by supply and demand in each market.
2. Any influence on the price will be returned from the price
3. Before the price moves up or down, a balance between supply and demand creates a balance.
4. If this balance is disturbed, the price moves in the direction of supply or in the direction of demand.
5. The price moves as long as supply or demand until there is a balance again. Then the whole thing starts from the beginning.

Most candles are where there is a balance. We do not want to trade there, because the price is not moving very much. So we have to act when there is no balance.

There are 3 different states in the market.

1. Offer outweighs the demand = price drops
2. Demand outweighs the offer = price rises
3. Supply and demand are balanced
According to the sellers the offer (short) there, while the buyers represent the demand (long).

1. Offer = Seller (short)
2. Request = Buyer (long)

The quantity available on the market represents the supply, the demand is the quantity that the buyer would like to purchase.
If you shop at the weekly market, do you want to pay $ 6 or 4 $ for 4 lbs tomatoes? Of course, only $ 4. So, assuming the product has the same quality, you will buy from the dealer, who only charges $ 4 for the tomatoes. Thus, the demand will be greater at the cheaper dealer than at the expensive dealer.
So what does the trader who sells the tomatoes for $ 6 / lbs do? For now, he only needs to sell 66% as much as his competitor to earn the same. Or he waits until the competitor has no more tomatoes, then sells his tomatoes for $ 6 / lb and earns 50% more. In the worst case, he has to go down with the price. These competing factors (supply and demand) meet each other in all markets and regulate the price.
In the stock market environment, the price strives to find a so-called equilibrium. At that moment, buyers and sellers are equally satisfied until an imbalance rebalances in favor of supply or demand. Then the prices rise or fall again.
But even if you can accurately identify supply and demand, you will not get on with it. Decisive are the zones where the supply outweighs the demand or the demand the supply.
Known as resistance or support.
These reversal points, which often have an increased volume, must be recognized.
There are many ways to work with resistance and support lines, I myself work only with horizontal lines, because I have the best experience.

Option A: Confirmation of resistance or support
If you have drawn resistance and support lines in the chart, look how the price is there. A later entry will often save you from big losses, but you will get into a less favorable course and minimize your potential profit. Important: the highest possible risk-reward ratio.

Option B: Enter without confirmation
You are sure how the course will behave at your indicated resistance or support line and will board immediately without waiting for a confirmation. If your expectation works out, you are at a bargain price, improving the chance-risk ratio. If the trade unfolds to your disadvantage, you need to get out early to protect yourself from major losses.

Identification of the equilibrium

The big problem with the candles in the chart is the period in which they are formed. Surely you know the candlestick formations like hammer, doji, engulfing, etc. Sometimes you work, but often not. This is due to the temporal composition of the candles. Candle formations in a certain time frame are therefore just a mere random product of the time, the broker and the dealer. If you change the time frame in which the candles are formed, so would the candles and their formations change. The doji is now a normal candle with no indication of a course change.

Therefore one should work with different time units to identify a possible equilibrium. Many turning points can be identified by means of the Equilibrium, but not all. The price in the chart is always random and nobody can predict 100% of the turning points in the chart. It's not necessary with strategic money management either. Decisive is the payoff ratio and the expectancy.

You can often see these turning points in advance and use them to your advantage. You have to look at the past of the charts, because the big traders (elephants) leave their mark in the snow, which is easier to recognize than the tracks of the small traders (hares).
Another advantage is that you do not have to load your screen with unnecessary indicators. Although I work with a self-created dashboard, which tells me primarily the momentary strength of each currency pairs and, for example, the dollar index, but I'm interested in this just before the entry or exit.
My main charts are almost entirely made up of my own resistance and support lines. The Candle Strength indicator often helps me to identify the effective candle thickness, which is not always easy with the above points.

The best indicator is the price chart and the orderbook. But the price chart is a trailing indicator, because only when the candle is completed, I get a meaningful information on the price level. But then it is often too late.

In my preliminary analysis, start with the day or 4H chart to determine the rough direction.
The 1H chart shows me the medium term bias and the 15min / 5 min chart the short term turning points in the market.
A very important instrument for me is the 15 second bar chart. In high phases of volatility you can recognize a structure faster.
A catchy example of equilibrium was in the EURUSD. After the price had risen from 1.03249 on 26.12.16 with a triple top to 1.20921 on 08.09.17 and slowly went into the correction phase, many traders wondered how far this correction would go.

The interesting thing is that the price of 1.15529 in the monthly chart was already reflected in a 2003 Equilibrium.

If you look at the monthly chart from 1994 to 2018, you could derive some trading possibilities from the Equilibrium. This usually works in every unit of time.

Example Equilibrium in the 15 min chart between 11th and 13th October 2017


Now you will wonder if that always works. The answer is NO!
Then all traders would be millionaires. If someone wins $ 100, another will lose $ 100. That's the system.
If you have lost $ 100 you should not be sad. The money is not gone, it has only one other. And he's sure to be happy.
The identification of the relevant equilibrium is difficult and only possible through many years of experience. But as you can see, this trading option is well worth it. It is interesting for swing traders, day traders and scalpers and can be used in all timeframes.
To better identify an equilibrium, one should zoom down from higher time units to smaller time units. This filters out inaccuracies.

Incidentally, it is often helpful in the chart to remove the shadows to better recognize the Equilibrium.

Equilibrium in the 15 min chart with and without shadow

With Buy Limit and Sell Limit Order you can work well in this trading system, but is rather less recommended when scalping.
Even an Equlibrium professional will reach its limits, because trading has changed enormously in recent years. The price is unpredictable and still random. Even if you work with an orderbook, you often have to realize that there are many pseudo orders that are deleted shortly before the target. Oderflow, Footprint and Cumulative Delta are still good help, but unfortunately they can not look to the future.

Trading and making music have something in common. You can learn to play both, but in the end it's the right feeling and flair that determines success and failure.

I wish you a lot of flair and feeling for the great success.

source : by bionic

Read More